The Institutional Risk Analyst

If we told you that large cap financials are outperforming both the S&P 500 and bitcoin over the past month, what would you say? 

The Treasury market/bank industry PR lobbyist angle on the Fed's eSLR proposal is a little fake-out for the financial media. This not about buying more Treasury debt but instead buying back more bank stocks. Sabe?

We have little conviction behind our long positions in AXP and the SPX, thus the defensive recommendation in terms of sell orders.

In simple terms, FLG is not making money and does not seem to have any immediate prospects to pull itself out of a slow downward spiral of balance sheet shrinkage and operating losses.  Whereas before 2024, FLG was a peer performer in most respects, today the bank’s financial performance is significantly below-peer, bottom quartile in many cases.

We noted in the most recent IRA Bank Book that the Q1 2025 banking industry data from the FDIC was showing improvement in certain commercial line items, particularly non-owner occupied real estate. But is this another head fake by desperate banks trying to conceal rancid commercial real estate exposures?